The Paris Agreement - 2050, How Unified Are We and Will we Get There?

Welcome to the second article of the Creative Eco Hub first series where, as part of our mission here at CEH we want to inform you and keep you up to date with various global issues and events focusing predominately on Business for Good (B1G1) sustainability and climate change.

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In the second article of this series, & following on from the first exploring the Paris agreement we will be looking into whether or not we are on target to meet the Paris Agreement’s most ambitious goal of keeping global warming below 1.5°C (2.7°F) above pre-industrial levels which will require reducing global greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions by 50 percent by 2030. Also, if this is not looking likely, what will the effects be from an economic and social standpoint? 

So first of all - are the 184 countries that have pledged to reduce their emissions under the Paris agreement likely to achieve their targets? 

There is a lot of mixed debate around this, however unfortunately the evidence is beginning to suggest that it is looking increasingly likely this won’t be the case. A major influencer contributing to this will be the strength and associated aftereffects of the economic rebound following on from the effects of Covid 19. In the short term of course the effects of Covid have had a positive impact on climate change as countries shut down to contain the crisis, however, on a macro time frame, these impacts will be relatively minimal and may be insignificant as stimulus packages ignore the focus on renewables and continuing to reduce emissions in favour of growth. We are also now starting to see countries amend their Paris Agreement targets or even withdraw completely, with the US being the most notable example, withdrawing on the 4th November 2020, one day after the Presidential elections. This, ironically, is at odds with an August 2019 poll that found 71% of US voters want the federal government to do more to reduce climate change.

In addition to the above, the Climate Action Tracker (an independent scientific analysis produced by two research organisations tracking climate action since 2009) forecasts that only eight of the thirty-six countries it monitors will reach the 2 degree Celsius target by 2050. Of concern is the seven countries within this group, two of which are the US & Russia that they forecast could even miss this goal by up to 4 degrees, which, taking into consideration their size will severely outweigh the achievements of smaller nations

It is important to note however that the pessimistic tone above should also be balanced against the positive progress being made. As an example of this - a new report by the International Energy Agency has found that global carbon emissions actually flattened in 2019, following two years of increased emissions. The US also decreased its carbon emissions by 2.9 percent last year. 

In addition to this, we need to consider the role that new technology will likely play in reducing emissions (in particular the global advent of electrical transportation) along with the heavy investment in renewables that have been taking precedence over fossil fuels within the last few years. China for example plans to replace all coal with nuclear energy over the next decade and India has a defined plan for increasing the proportion of renewables over the next 15 years. 

So, in summary limiting global warming to less than 2 degrees Celsius by 2050 is certainly a possibility, but by no means certain. It will require exceptional international cooperation and commitment, and, if governments around the world continue to revise their targets and withdraw from the agreement then this will become far less likely. 

Stay tuned for our next article exploring the economic and social impacts if we don't reach the 2050 targets.