Welcome to the third article of the Creative Eco Hub first series where, as part of our mission here at CEH we want to inform you and keep you up to date with various global issues and events focusing predominately on Business for Good (B1G1) sustainability and climate change.

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In the third article of this series, & following on from the second article where we explored whether we are on target to meet the Paris Agreement’s most ambitious goal of keeping global warming below 1.5°C (2.7°F) above pre-industrial levels which will require reducing global greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions by 50 percent by 2030. Also, if this is not looking likely, what will the effects be from an economic and social standpoint?

There are 184 countries that have pledged to reduce their emissions under the Paris agreement but what if they don’t, what would the economic and social impacts be if targets are missed?

It is no secret that excessive global warming could bring with it disastrous consequences. But what will this likely equate to?

First of all with the human population increasing at an alarming rate and estimated to be 9.7 Billion by 2050 (from the current 7.6 Billion it is today) the impact of climate change could result in up to 150 million climate refugees mainly as a result of sea levels rising 30 to 200 feet (10 to 60 meters) and large parts of the planet become uninhabitable. Contributing to this will be more frequent weather events and patterns that will hurt human health, livelihoods, food, and water, as well as biodiversity. According to the report, ‘The Truth Behind the Paris Agreement Climate Pledges’. The additional economic losses from these weather events induced by climate change could cost the world up to $2 Billion a day, and, according to the ‘The World Banks’ warning: if we don't do something immediately, climate change could push 100 million more people into poverty by 2030.

In summary, there are many variables involved, including our rate of adaption to mitigate the effects of climate change and estimation of the economic impacts of climate change is itself extremely challenging because it can affect society in many ways.

As stated recently in a Science news article ‘Potentially large economic impacts of climate change can be avoided by human actions’, under the most pessimistic combination of assumptions, the estimated economic impact will be equivalent to 8.6% of the global total GDP at the end of the 21st century, while it will be limited to around or less than 1% if the 2-degree target, which was adopted in the Paris Agreement, is achieved and societal resilience to climate-related hazards improves.

Finally, we would like to address the possibilities of actually accelerating economic growth whilst maintaining or exceeding climate change objectives.

Converting an economies underlying infrastructure from one that relies on fossil fuels to renewables takes a lot of initial capital, however as described in a recent article by Iberdrola (the world’s global energy sustainable leader) “despite the initial reticence of the business community, an increasing number of studies and activities show that measures aimed at dealing with global climate change are a golden opportunity for ensuring sustainable development and driving economic growth”

In addition and as explained by the World Commission on the Economy and Climate in a report at the end of 2018, adopting ambitious climate measures may generate profits of USD$26 billion by 2030, creating 65 million new jobs with low carbon emissions.

According to this report, to build a more resilient, beneficial growth model for people we must accelerate structural transformation in five key economic sectors:

Clean energy systems

Smarter urban developments
Sustainable land use
Smart water management
Circular industrial economy

In conclusion, the evidence suggests that it is possible to develop fast and go green at the same time, however, it requires society driving change and standing up for what is right, strong political leadership and business that are encouraged and incentivized to put ideas into practice and drive change at scale. even though change may be initially expensive

As further explored by Erik Solheim change is taking place however as countries shift their industrial revolution policy hangovers to more sustainably driven ones. Renewables outcompete coal everywhere for new investments. Not just on welfare for people and on clean nature, but on price & the results are coming. Examples include;

The fact that for the first time in 2020, the United States will receive more energy from renewables than from coal.
In June the cheapest energy bid ever was done in India. Spanish and Italian companies were among the winners of solar energy contacts at all-time low prices.
China, while still heavily dependent on coal, is changing faster than most. China is the world's biggest producer and buyer of solar energy of wind power and of batteries. 70 % of all environment-friendly high-speed rail is in China as well as 99 % of all-electric buses.
It is now almost certain that 2019 was the year of peak oil. The International Energy Agency expects demand for oil to fall by 9 percent in 2020, it could be more.

There are also new ways of doing business that support the drive towards a more sustainable and environmentally friendly economy that is gaining momentum. Over time as positive impacts of this are experienced and promoted, and possibly become demanded by society, it will only serve to improve our chances of averting the severe negative impacts that climate change will bring if we do not divert our path.

Stay tuned as we explore this revolution taking place of doing business for good in our next article.

The Paris Agreement - Is the economy doomed if we don't reach the 2050 targets?