What have been the impacts of COVID 19 on our health?
With so many negative stories being washed across every media platform available, it is hard to move away from the devastating impacts that COVID 19 has inflicted on humanity, but what about our health? The impact and longevity of climate change on our lifestyles will no doubt pale that of the Coronavirus into insignificance. This disruption is a wakeup call and potentially an indication of what will become normal if we continue on the same path without drastic change. In one sense, this is a time to rejoice, to marvel at what we can do to repair our planet and our health when we absolutely have our backs against the wall and just simply do what we have to do to survive.
While the air had cleared over China and NASA satellites showed the air pollution levels had dropped significantly there is evidence that the change is at least partly related to the economic slow down following the outbreak of coronavirus (NASA ref) but what benefit if any does this have on our health. If we refer to the blog article from Earth Observatory there were a number of environmental benefits from the global pandemic that has caused havoc on our financial stability. While the environmental benefits may translate to human health in the short term what are the long term mental health implications. Is human health really the winner out of this pandemic.
Researchers across the globe are reporting that while China has seen a significant decline in C02 emissions they are quick to speculate that “The unprecedented declines in economic activity precipitated by the COVID-19 pandemic will likely drive the largest single-year reduction in global CO2 emissions on record. Based on a country-level analysis of both new IMF GDP forecasts and longer-term trends in decarbonization, we predict that global CO2 emissions will fall by around 4.8% in 2020 (2.1% to 7.4%) if the pandemic fades over the summer, and by 7.6% (5% to 10.1%) if it lingers on or re-emerges later in the year” (Zeke Hausfather, COVID-19 CO2 drop).
If the media are anything to go by, with the animals roaming around the city as people are locked away indoors, or the canals in Venice are once again clear and the marine life has returned it would appear that this has been a positive pause of humanity that has enabled the environment to take a breath.
Does the reduction in CO2 emissions have a positive impact on our health? According to the World Health Organisation (WHO), the main source of pollutants that are a direct concern to health includes black carbon, methane and ozone. These form a group of pollutants called, ‘Short-lived climate pollutants (SLCPs). They produce strong climate change effects but only remain in the atmosphere briefly –for a few days to about a decade. The short life span of SLCPs means that assertive action now to reduce emissions can rapidly improve both air quality as well as slowing the rate of near-term climate change. If we trace back to where the large proportion of our pollutants come from, a staggering 80% of black emissions are from human activities related to energy production and use, such as fuel combustion in residential and commercial buildings, as well as transport.
In a report by the WHO, SCLP emissions are directly associated with cardiovascular and respiratory diseases, including heart disease, pulmonary disease, respiratory infections and lung cancer. SLCP emissions thus contribute significantly to the more than 7 million premature deaths annually linked to air pollution.
Indirectly, the SLCPs ozone and black carbon reduce plant photosynthesis and growth, thus decreasing agricultural yields, which in turn threatens food security. They also affect weather patterns and the melting of snow and ice, which may harm and endanger health through extreme weather events such as floods.
COVID-19 has seen a reduction in CO2 emissions however they are likely to have a very minimal long term benefit to climate change, The Break Through Institute, “Because atmospheric CO2 concentrations that drive global warming are a result of cumulative emissions, a 5% reduction in current emissions will have relatively little effect on the climate”. Therefore will this have a long-lasting positive effect on our health? While the CO2 emissions are down as the factories sit ideal and the aviation sector has come to a grinding halt, traffic on our roads has diminished we are still omitting emissions from our homes on a daily basis with the new working from home routine. If the long term positive impact is minimal, one can only assume that our health benefits are short-lived.
Let me add in an element that many of you may not have thought about, what happens to the billions of masks and gloves that people are using as shields to protect themselves from COVID. Where do they end up? Will this result in a positive environmental outcome with more plastic and rubber in our oceans for our marine life to feast on?
But while the benefits to our general wellness are evident through the lens of the environmentalist what about the negative impacts on people’s mental health.
According to YouGov, 72% of Australians are concerned about the long last negative impact on society. At the time the 2019 Australian Government Productivity Commissions Mental Health, The Productivity Commission's Mental Health inquiry was drafted COVID wasn’t even a consideration and that statistics are staggering:
One in five people will experience mental ill-health (diagnosable, mental illness, and mental health problems) in any year. Over their lifetime, one in two people will experience mental health.
The rate of mental health presentations at emergency departments has risen by about 70% in the last five years.
Mental health is the leading cause of disability in people aged 10–24 years
Suicide is the leading cause of death for Australians aged 15–44 years
The costs of lost productivity due to mental ill-health range from $10 to 18 billion
Fast forward to 2020 and the predicted health pandemic in the mental health sector can only be described as catastrophic. The Australian government came out weeks after the lockdown occurred almost as if they knew the mental health repercussion would be disastrous if they didn’t front foot the recovery efforts. The Australian government alone has poured over $500 million into mental health support and suicide prevention. While the research outcomes are challenging to predict, and it is too early to present any substantial results; In a press release, The Hon Greg Hunt, Minister for Health said, “The Government recognises that many Australians are experiencing fear, anxiety, loneliness, financial and family stress as a result of the COVID-19 pandemic and the measures needed to contain it”.
While the world’s media have managed to surface a handful of positive attributes that COVID-19 will leave behind, it is hard to determine if the short term shut down was really worth the long term consequences that will linger with us for much longer than COVID hung around. Carbon emissions fell across some of the largest cities in the world and animals returned to wander through streets that they had abandon however we stand at the coal face of the unknown. It’s hard to ascertain if the reduction in emissions that are directly related to cardiovascular and respiratory diseases will be a greater benefit than the spike in mental health issues that we are set to face over the coming months and years.
References:
1. Airborne Nitrogen Dioxide Plummets Over China. https://earthobservatory.nasa.gov/images/146362/airborne-nitrogen-dioxide-plummets-over-china
2. Hausfather, Zeke, COVID-19 CVould Result in Much Larger CO2 Drop in 2020. The Breakthrough Institute. April 30, 2020. https://thebreakthrough.org/issues/energy/covid-co2-drop
3. World Health Organisation, Public health, environmental and social determinants of health (PHE), Reducing global health risks through mitigation of short-lived climate pollutants. https://www.who.int/phe/health_topics/outdoorair/climate-reducing-health-risks-faq/en/
4. Australian Government Productivity Commissions Mental Health. The Productivity Commission's Mental Health inquiry. https://www.pc.gov.au/inquiries/current/mental-health/draft/mental-health-draft-overview.pdf
5. COVID-19 Fears. In: Health, medicine & beauty, International. 18 March, 2020. https://today.yougov.com/topics/international/articles-reports/2020/03/17/fear-catching-covid-19
6. Ministers Department of Health. The Hon Greg Hunt MP, Minister for Health. Minister Hunt’s Media. 16 May 2020. https://www.health.gov.au/ministers/the-hon-greg-hunt-mp/media/covid-19-481-million-for-national-mental-health-and-wellbeing-pandemic-response-plan